On April 26, the "2022 Global Energy Storage Industry Development Review and Prospect Seminar" was held. At the seminar, the energy storage Committee of China Energy Research Society and Zhongguancun Energy Storage Industry Technology Alliance released the "White Paper on Energy Storage Industry Research 2022". At the same time, the conference has been supported by the National Energy Administration, China Energy Research Society, Institute of Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Tsinghua University and other government agencies, research institutes and universities.
Shi Yubo, president of China Energy Research Society, delivered a speech, saying that it is of great significance to systematically review the current situation of global energy storage industry and analyze the future development trend of the industry in order to promote the healthy and orderly development of China's energy storage industry in the context of the normal development of COVID-19 and the changing international situation.
Liu Yafang, deputy director of the Energy Conservation and Technological Equipment Department of the National Energy Administration, pointed out in her speech that the "14th Five-year Plan" is a major opportunity for the development of energy storage, and the current important task for the development of new energy storage is to promote the construction of technology, market and policy multi-wheel drive development pattern. The National Energy Administration attaches great importance to the development of new energy storage and has been promoting the implementation of energy storage policies in recent years.
Chen Haisheng, chairman of the Energy Storage Committee of China Energy Research Society and chairman of zhongguancun Energy Storage Industry Technology Alliance, said in his speech that the development trend of energy storage in 2021 has exceeded the industry's expectations. According to data from "White Paper on Energy Storage Industry Research 2022", the scale of new energy storage projects will be put into operation in China in 2021 to reach 2.4GW/4.9GWh. Lithium Battery, compressed air energy storage, liquid flow battery, flywheel energy storage and other technologies have become important forces of new energy storage installations.
Energy storage has ushered in the critical moment of development, so to speak, challenges and opportunities coexist. Data from "White Paper on Energy Storage Industry Research 2022" show that in 2021, the scale of new energy storage projects planned and under construction in China will be 23.8GW/47.8GWh, and the newly added scale of new energy storage will break through 2GW for the first time, reaching 2.4GW/4.9GWh, with a year-on-year growth of 54%. Among the new energy storage, both lithium-ion battery and compressed air have 100 megawatt projects connected to the grid. In particular, the latter has achieved a leap-forward growth in 2021, with an additional operation scale of 170MW, nearly 15 times of the accumulated installed scale by the end of 2020.
In a subsequent report, the Chinese Academy of Engineering Du Xiang wan, state grid co., LTD., deputy chief engineer and Feng Kai, associate professor of electrical engineering department, tsinghua university, director of the development planning department Zhong Haiwang, researcher at the institute of physics of Chinese Academy of Sciences Li Hong, zhongguancun YueFen/research director, deputy secretary-general of energy storage industry technology alliance from energy development, business model, technical route and so on in detail in this paper.
New energy + energy storage market will enter 100 billion yuan
Du Xiangwan, an academician of the Chinese Academy of Engineering, analyzed the important role of energy storage in realizing energy security, reliability, economic feasibility, green and low-carbon development from the perspective of energy. Academician Du believes that commercial energy storage (thermal) technology is the key node for the future energy system to be flexible, inclusive and balanced. In addition, it is mentioned that hydrogen energy storage can improve the absorption capacity of wind and light, and can cope with the intermittent long period, and convert fluctuating wind and solar energy into hydrogen energy, which is conducive to energy storage and transmission.
In terms of cost, Du said that technological progress will further reduce the cost of energy storage and hydrogen energy. The cost of electrochemical energy storage has broken through the economic inflection point, and will be reduced by another one-third in the next five years, and another 66% to 80% in the next decade. The cost of energy saving brought by energy storage will offset the cost of energy storage equipment and become a new growth point of energy economy. It is estimated that by 2025, the new energy + energy storage market will reach 100 billion.
New energy storage installations in state grid areas have exceeded 4.53 million kw
Feng Kai, deputy chief engineer and director of development planning Department of State Grid Co., LTD., introduced the role of new energy storage in supporting new power systems. Carbon scenario system of peak regulating ability large gaps exist, not enough to support the high proportion of new energy efficient utilization and the high ratio power, according to the new energy utilization rate of 95%, regardless of the new coal flexibility transformation, new energy storage and demand side response resources, in 2025 the company barracks area load gap of about 080 million kw, In 2030, there will be a gap of about 160 million kW in peak-shaving. Without the support of new energy storage and other adjustable resources of corresponding scale, the utilization rate of new energy will decrease significantly. In order to cope with the above challenges, we believe that energy storage is an important means to ensure stable power supply, increase system safety margin, and improve the utilization rate of new energy. It is an important technology and basic equipment to build a new power system, and an important support to achieve the goal of carbon peak and carbon neutrality. The company will vigorously promote the construction of pumped storage power stations, actively support the large-scale application of new energy storage, and strive to achieve 100 million kilowatts of pumped storage and new energy storage installations in the company's business area by 2030.
In the medium and long term, as technology advances and costs fall, new energy storage will become an important force in power system regulation. By the end of 2021, the installed capacity of new energy storage in the operating area of the company has exceeded 4.53 million kW, accounting for more than 82% of the national total.
New business models may emerge
At present, the development of energy storage mainly depends on policy stimulus, while the long-term healthy development of energy storage still needs to be marketized, among which the design of business model is crucial. Zhong Haiwang, associate professor of electrical engineering at Tsinghua University, believes that energy storage should be allowed to participate in different power markets and provide different services to make better use of its benefits. In addition to the grid side energy storage, it is suggested that as long as accept unified scheduling, energy storage, give play to the role of overall and systemic side should be incorporated into the power grid storage, this is beneficial to form the open side of power grid energy storage market competition, but also depends on the electric power dispatching institutions to build a large-scale energy storage system cluster intelligent scheduling control platform, Facilitate large-scale system participation in the market.
Zhong Haiwang also proposed a time-sharing reuse business model, that is, an energy storage station can provide peak regulation in different time periods and frequency regulation in other time periods, so as to improve the income of the energy storage station and maximize the benefits.
Solid-state batteries and sodium-ion batteries will be competitive in the future
Li Hong, a researcher at the Institute of Physics of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, said that the solid-liquid electrolyte hybrid battery proposed by the Chinese Academy of Sciences is not only expected to play the advantages of solid-state batteries in terms of safety, but also easy to be engineered, so it has a good prospect of development. In addition, the sodium-ion battery is expected to be very competitive in the future frequency modulation market, peak modulation market and large-scale distributed energy storage due to its high charge-discharge rate, high temperature stability and no resource dependence.
Referring to the development goals of energy storage technology in the "14th Five-year Plan", Li Hong emphasized that, in general, the strategic layout of short-time high-frequency technology, medium and long time scale energy storage technology and ultra-long time energy storage technology will be formed, including different application scenarios, different technical requirements, from MWh coverage to GWh, while supporting a series of advanced technologies. Including characterization analysis, testing, security and advanced manufacturing. It is hoped that the cost per kilowatt hour will be reduced to less than 20 cents, the service life of energy storage will be increased to 20 years, and the cycle times will be increased to more than 15,000 times. In terms of energy storage safety, it will be developed from relatively safe to essentially safe, among which intelligence is particularly important. The biggest challenge in the field of energy storage is the long-term storage technology of more than 8 to 10 hours.
By 2026, the cumulative scale of new energy storage will reach 48.5GW
Yue Fen, deputy secretary general/Research director of Zhongguancun Energy Storage Industry Technology Alliance, made a comprehensive summary of the energy storage market in 2021. In terms of the scale of new energy storage market, 10GW will be put into operation globally in 2021, with a total of 25GW. Among them, 2.4GW/4.9GWh of new energy storage will be put into operation in China, with a total of 5.73GW. In terms of the distribution of new energy storage applications in China, the power supply side accounts for 41%, the power grid side for 35%, and the user side for 24%. In terms of new energy storage planning projects under construction, starting from 2021, China's energy storage market will enter into scale development in a real sense: of the 865 26.3GW energy storage projects planned, under construction and put into operation in 2021, only 7 gigawatts projects will be put into operation, but more than 70 gigawatts are planned to be under construction. Most of the 100 MEGAwatt projects are independent energy storage/shared energy storage forms, which have the basis and conditions to play a system-level role for the power grid in terms of volume. In addition, more technology routes are also on the way to gigawatt applications, including the first gigawatt compressed air energy storage project commissioning operation, and gigawatt liquid flow battery project under construction.
Yue Fen also made a comparative analysis of global energy storage business models. In terms of income sources, in the international market, it is more common to provide energy storage with a guaranteed income through the capacity agreement of 10 or 15 years first, and then add the income from auxiliary services and the income from the spot market. Compared with the international, the domestic approach is more of a planned approach, such as giving some new energy indicators or giving incentives to independent energy storage for preferential power generation or guaranteeing the number of hours to be mobilized. In the future, independent energy storage may open more markets for energy storage with the continuous development of spot market and auxiliary service market, and at the same time, we can consider setting capacity electricity price to provide energy storage with a guaranteed income.
Under the incentive of innovative business model and policy, Yue Fen believes that in the next five years, new energy storage in China will still maintain a high growth rate. In the conservative scenario, it is expected that the installed capacity of new energy storage will reach 48.5GW in 2026, with a compound annual growth rate of 53%. In the ideal scenario, the total installed capacity will reach 79.5GW, with a compound growth rate of 69%.
With the rapid growth of installed scale, the development of new energy storage with high quality still faces major challenges. Liu Yafang, deputy director of the Energy conservation and Technology Equipment Department of the National Energy Administration, said: "First, the new energy storage management system and mechanism is not perfect, and the industry management needs to be strengthened. Second, the cost channeling mechanism of new energy storage projects covers a wide range of areas and is difficult to implement. Third, the safety management of new energy storage projects needs to be strengthened, and relevant standards and specifications and production procedures need to be further improved and revised. Fourth, the planning layout of new energy storage is not coordinated with the scheduling operation, and the overall utilization rate is relatively low.
Chen Haisheng, director of the Energy Storage Committee of China Energy Research Society and director of Zhongguancun Energy Storage Industry Technology Alliance, said that from the perspective of the projects already built in 2021, a consensus has not been reached on a stable and reasonable price mechanism, the implementation rules of price compensation have not been formed, and the phenomenon of idle power distribution energy storage connected projects is widespread.
However, new energy storage development has not stopped the pace of innovation. Zhongguancun Energy Storage Industry Technology Alliance will continue to play a role in policy promotion, industrial research, market activities, standard formulation and other aspects, and make new contributions to the new energy storage to play a greater value and support the transformation of energy structure.
