Recently, the soaring price of natural gas has become a hot topic in Europe and even the world.
Since the beginning of the year, European electricity prices have continued to rise sharply, and electricity prices in major EU economies have generally more than doubled compared to a year ago.
And as the northern hemisphere gradually enters autumn and winter, European electricity prices may have more room to rise.
At the same time, due to extreme weather, the power generation of wind and hydropower in many European and American countries has fallen sharply, which has triggered a sharp increase in the demand for thermal power substitution and caused the price of natural gas to soar. European countries are seeking the supply of green energy and are accelerating the advancement of Solar Storage Battery projects.
In September this year, the price of electricity in the UK was almost 7 times that of the same period last year. The Bank of England issued a warning that due to the impact of energy prices, it is expected that the UK inflation rate will exceed 4% by the end of 2021. The shortage of natural gas will drive up the cost of the British food industry.
As a benchmark for European natural gas transactions, as of September 23 local time, the natural gas price at the Dutch TTF center has risen to 71.00 Euros/MWh, a rise of 72% in the last month alone, and since January, the natural gas price has increased It has risen by more than 250%.
Goldman Sachs also predicts in the latest research report that the tight supply and demand of natural gas in Europe is expected to intensify in the next few months, and the entire Europe will face the risk of power outages.
The soaring price of natural gas has become a problem that plagues Europe and the world. This round of European "natural gas crisis" is mainly affected by both sides of supply and demand.
On the demand side, the economic restart after the epidemic has pushed up the demand for natural gas. Over the past few months, the unusually cold winters and unusually hot summers in most parts of Asia and Europe have greatly increased people's electricity demand and demand for coal and coal. Capital investment in natural gas.
Since the end of last year, strong demand for electricity across Asia has driven LNG imports far higher than the previous normal level.
And as countries implement more environmentally friendly energy policies, natural gas with less pollution has become the first choice for replacing coal, which has led Europe to compete with Asia for the import of liquefied natural gas (LNG).
On the supply side, last year`s particularly cold winter meant that Europe consumed more natural gas reserves than usual, and this summer`s reserves were not replenished in time. Natural gas production in different regions of the world has also been disrupted and interrupted; and the flow of Russian natural gas into Europe is declining, making the already tight market even more tense.
At the same time, U.S. LNG exports have been restricted. As an important supplier of natural gas in Europe, the United States was affected by Hurricane Ida in early September, and natural gas production fell sharply, and natural gas futures prices have been at the highest level in more than seven years.
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The US Security and Environmental Enforcement Agency said on Monday that after Hurricane Ida, it is estimated that 43.6% of oil production capacity and 51.6% of natural gas production capacity in the Gulf of Mexico are still closed.
While the blow caused by Hurricane Ida to the Gulf of Mexico oil and gas production has not yet recovered, tropical storm [Nicholas" has formed in the southern Gulf of Mexico and may once again disrupt natural gas production in the region.
The United States is the world`s third largest exporter of LNG, accounting for 10-15% of global LNG exports. The decline in production has significantly affected the supply of natural gas in Europe and Asia.
Insufficient power generation from renewable energy sources such as wind power has also indirectly pushed up European natural gas prices.
In addition, although the Beixi No. 2 pipeline, which the market had hoped to increase the supply of natural gas, has been completed, the regulatory approval process before it is officially put into use is still very long. This process may take 4 months. ammonia
This means that before this critical supply can be put into use, it will still face a double "severe winter" of climate and natural gas prices.
At the same time, if the Asian region wants to increase the supply of natural gas, it must pay higher prices, which indirectly pushes up global natural gas prices.
All governments have increased the construction of photovoltaics and invested a large amount of solar lithium battery energy storage construction to reduce their dependence on natural gas supply.
