Lithium price "fierce than the tiger", if not effectively contained, this year's new energy vehicle sales growth target is expected to be no small challenge.
Previously, many domestic institutions predicted that China's sales of new energy vehicles are expected to break 5.5 million in 2022, and even reach 6 million, with a penetration rate of more than 20%.
However, the price of ferocious carbonate lithium, seems to have become a target on the road "block".
In the middle of February, Euler brand issued a notice to the terminal to stop receiving orders for black cats and white cats. Dong Yudong, CEO of Euler, admitted that after subsidies were withdrawn and raw material prices increased in 2022, "today's Black Cat will suffer a loss of more than 10,000 yuan for every car sold." It is reported that the Eu shielding cat, white cat two products positioned as A00 class pure electric vehicles, 2021 cumulative sales of more than 88,000 units, accounting for more than 65% of the total sales of the Euler brand.
Chang 'an Benben E-star, which belongs to A00 class pure electric vehicle with European shielded cat and White cat, came out in November last year to stop receiving orders, and industry insiders speculate that it is also affected by the price rise of raw materials.
Latest data show that on March 4, battery grade lithium carbonate rose 5500 yuan/ton, the average price was 500,000 yuan/ton. It is worth noting that the price of this product was only around 50,000 yuan/ton at the beginning of 2021, but now it has increased by more than 900%.
If the price of lithium carbonate of 50,000 yuan/ton in January 2021 is compared with the current price of 500,000 yuan/ton, the battery cost of A00 class car's 30-degree battery pack will rise by about 8100 yuan. And that's just the cost of lithium carbonate, a raw material.
At present, the price of A00 and A0 car is about 30,000 to 100,000 yuan, and the cost sensitivity is relatively high, and the battery costs the largest proportion. And if the price of lithium carbonate continues to maintain this high, and even continue to rise, then with the price transmission, it is expected that there will be more A0 and the following models step after Euler.
It is understood that in 2021, China's new energy passenger car production reached 3.31 million vehicles, including Hongguang Mini, Chery eQ, Ben Ben, European shielding cat, zero run T03 and other A00 car production reached 630,000 vehicles, A0 car production of 370,000 vehicles, both in the new energy passenger car accounted for 30.3%.
The supply side is also changing due to rising raw material prices. Recently, there is news in the market that because of the crazy rise in the price of upstream lithium carbonate and other materials, some battery enterprises have begun to adjust the battery orders of minicar, "as much as possible to produce some high-profit configuration models of battery orders, to ease the pressure on the cost."
If A0 level and the following model output by rising battery costs are forced to cut, or direct price rises, is expected this year new energy vehicle overall sales growth or affected.
In fact, not only A00 class A0 market, A class market is still very sensitive to the price of new energy vehicle market, the impact of the price rise of battery materials on the relevant market is very obvious.
For A class and above model market, in the face of the upstream rapidly rising raw material prices, has also transmitted pressure to consumers.
Similarly, in the mid-end car market, according to the calculation of a car battery pack 60kWh, because of the impact of the rise in the price of lithium carbonate, since the beginning of last year, the cost has risen to about 16000 yuan.
According to industry statistics, as of early March, at least 16 new energy vehicle companies have announced price adjustments, involving at least 36 models, covering the mainstream purchase range of 100,000 yuan to 300,000 yuan. Including Tesla, BYD, Xiaopeng and other previously released price announcements, new cars rose from 1,000 yuan to 10,000 yuan.
For high-end models, the power battery in its cost composition is relatively small cars are lower, its ability to digest this part of the price increase is stronger, and consumer acceptance will be relatively high. Data from The Power Battery Application Branch show that in 2021, the output of Class A and CLASS B of new energy passenger vehicles in The Chinese market accounted for about 57.1%, and it is expected that this year, the overall output of class A to Class B models will continue to expand.
It is worth noting that the current price of lithium carbonate has not stabilized and seems to be accelerating. At the beginning of the year, it took a month for the price of battery grade lithium carbonate to rise from 300,000 yuan/ton to 400,000 yuan/ton, and it only took about 20 days for the price to rise from 400,000 yuan/ton to 500,000 yuan/ton.
Judging from the actions of many auto companies, the high price will undoubtedly inhibit part of the demand, and make the profit distribution of the whole industry chain produce great injustice. Some links have already produced at a loss, and there is obvious resistance in the middle and downstream industry chain.
Recently, there is a rumor on the market, Ningde Times and some lithium iron phosphate manufacturers to reduce the near-term production plan, hoping to reduce production to resist price rises. However, Ningde Times denied the news.
But the news is not expected to come from nowhere. Ningde Times has many orders from high-quality car companies and is the world leader in power batteries. It has obvious advantages in procurement scale and cost. Meanwhile, it has an earlier and more perfect layout of upstream materials and a leading yield rate of production line, which make ningde Times more cost competitive compared with second and third tier battery companies.
For the second and third line battery enterprises, the skyrocketing price of lithium carbonate is undoubtedly a major blow, on the one hand, want to compete with ningde times and other head enterprises for customers, in the price can not lose; On the other hand, in order to ensure delivery, capacity is also important to keep up, even if the loss of goods, to ensure production is also a choice.
Carefully study this round of price rises, its behind the factors are also very worthy of vigilance. On the one hand, the price rise caused by the rapid explosion of electric vehicles and Energy Storage industry, and the rapid expansion of power and energy storage batteries driving the blowout demand for lithium carbonate and other materials; On the other hand, capital speculation, middlemen hoarding goods is also an important promoter.
In July 2021, Lithium concentrate supplier Pilbara publicly auctioned a small amount of spodumene concentrate on its auction platform for $1,250 / ton, far exceeding the market price of $735 / ton at the same time. In September of the same year, PLS carried out a second auction, and the auction price was $2,240 / ton (the market price of the same period was $1,000 / ton). This has also greatly raised the market expectations of lithium prices, lithium carbonate prices accelerated.
Industry insiders said, "lithium carbonate is actually tight but not short of, the high price is caused by artificial buying, some manufacturers in advance, there are dealers hoarding."
New energy vehicle supply chain risks and unreasonable price increases have attracted the government's attention. Xin Guobin, vice minister of Industry and Information Technology, said at a press conference that China will moderately accelerate the development of lithium, nickel and other resources this year to crack down on unfair competition such as hoarding and price gouging.
Undoubtedly, early attention to the "crazy" lithium carbonate, crack down on illegal hoarding and speculation, let its price return to reasonable, will be really conducive to the healthy development of the industry. Otherwise, the rapid conduction of the battery price, will undoubtedly make the development of new energy vehicles at a discount.
With the development of electric vehicles and energy storage industries in full swing, the demand for key raw materials such as lithium carbonate will only continue to rise rapidly in the future. At present, a number of head battery enterprises have carried out industrial chain layout in the four major materials of lithium resources, lithium salt and Lithium Battery in order to deal with the uncertainty of industrial chain.
In addition, for low-end models, lithium manganate, sodium ion and other alternative technologies for lithium iron phosphate are expected to usher in opportunities.
