China's power system is transforming to a new type of power system with new energy as the main body. As a flexible regulating power source, Energy Storage is the "neck" to build a new type of power system.
However, with the price of Lithium Battery rising rather than falling recently, the cost of lithium battery energy storage is high, and other technical routes are not universal, and the new energy storage market mechanism is still not perfect, the enthusiasm of energy storage investment is being troubled.
Therefore, how to solve the problem faster in the new energy storage policy is particularly urgent.
01
High cost aggravates the difficulty of energy storage promotion
Cost (cost performance) is the primary factor restricting the promotion of energy storage, especially lithium battery, as the most flexible energy storage tool, the cost has increased rather than decreased recently, which has intensified the difficulty of energy storage promotion.
Since last year, due to the sharp rise in the price of upstream lithium battery materials, the price of lithium battery has been greatly increased. The price of square lithium iron phosphate battery widely used for energy storage has risen from about 0.6 yuan /Wh(excluding tax) in the middle of last year to about 0.9 yuan /Wh recently, up about 0.3 yuan /Wh, or about 50%.
In addition, high Ah square type of lithium iron phosphate suitable for large energy storage capacity is more tight, the price increase is more obvious.
At the end of the energy storage market, the average price level of domestic lithium electric energy storage projects in 2021 is about 1.5 yuan /Wh, and the price of some energy storage projects this year reaches 1.7 yuan /Wh.
What is more serious is that the price of lithium battery is not only affected by the demand for energy storage, but also affected by the demand for new energy vehicles to a greater extent. Under the dual influence of the acceleration of the global penetration rate of new energy vehicles and the acceleration of global energy storage demand, the price of lithium battery is difficult to fall in the short term under the background of the restriction of upstream lithium salt resources.
In the implementation plan for the development of new Energy storage in the 14th Five-year Plan issued by the National Energy Administration, it is expected that the cost of electrochemical energy storage system will be reduced by more than 30% by 2025, which is not optimistic.
02
Energy storage is a means of production
Energy storage as a means of production, economy (return on investment) is an important factor affecting the promotion. Nobody pays the bill, how to shout, it doesn't matter.
The economy of energy storage is mainly reflected in two aspects:
The first is the initial investment cost. For lithium electric energy storage, the key is the price of Lithium Batteries. Currently, the high price of lithium electricity directly impacts the economy of energy storage projects.
Second, life cycle frequency, on the one hand depends on its cycle times and life, and on the other hand depends on demand response or absorption capacity. The current imperfect market mechanism adds uncertainty to the future income (cash flow) of energy storage projects, and also directly impacts the economy of energy storage projects.
Both factors are important and key to calculating the return on investment (IRR), especially the second one that is often overlooked. As a means of production, unlike consumer goods, value can only be created during use and cash flow can only be created. The more frequently or in more quantities, the better the economy. On the contrary, if idle or insufficient consumption, the worse the economy.
At present, energy storage not only faces the problem of imperfect market mechanism, but also faces the realistic cost pressure, which directly reduces the economy of energy storage. This is also the fundamental reason why the current energy storage project investment enthusiasm is not high.
03
Channeling costs to new energy is the way to solve the problem
Energy storage as an independent project, under the dual pressure of mechanism and cost, is still not economical or attractive for investment at present.
However, as wind power and photovoltaic have entered the era of parity, especially under the macro background of extremely low capital cost of central energy enterprises, new energy projects themselves have independent economy, and become hot property.
In many places, new energy projects have become an important bargaining chip for industrial investment, ecological protection, rural revitalization and even energy storage projects.
Take pv as an example, even under the current situation of module price rising to 2.0 yuan /W, pv projects still show a positive trend.
And new energy precisely needs energy storage, which is determined by the innate limitations of new energy. Without energy storage, wind power and photovoltaics face a problem of absorption. Power side storage is also the most important market for energy storage.
Therefore, the integration of "wind/light - storage" will be the inevitable trend of new power system with new energy as the main body, and energy storage also has the premise and channel to divert costs to new energy.
In other words, a more economical wind or photovoltaic project would offset a less economical new type of storage, making the package economical. This packaging mechanism is not only a mandatory option for wind power and photovoltaic, but also the best option. Who calls new energy congenital deficiency?
What's more, despite the high cost of energy storage, especially lithium, there is still clear room for the cost of new energy technologies to fall.
In the future, the technological cost of new energy will drop, and it will be difficult to improve the yield of new energy projects. With the decline of the cost of new energy technologies, the cost of non-technologies such as supporting energy storage will gradually rise to improve the stability, absorption capacity and other industrial or macro responsibilities of new energy.
For example, the current cost of photovoltaic modules is about 2 yuan /W, which is expected to be reduced to less than 1.5 yuan /W in the future. The cost of a single watt can be reduced by more than 0.5 yuan. In addition, the battery conversion efficiency is still improving.
Take the 100MW photovoltaic project as an example, if the photovoltaic system cost is reduced by 0.5 yuan /W, the cost will be saved by 50 million yuan. According to the energy storage ratio of 10% and the energy storage duration of 2 hours, it is assumed that the energy storage is 20MWh. The energy storage cost can be 2.5 yuan /Wh, while the current energy storage cost is about 1.7 yuan /Wh.
It can be seen that the decrease of photovoltaic cost can support the increase of supporting energy storage and potential cost, and it has certain space and flexibility. This will also become an important means to support future energy storage development and potential economic improvement.
In fact, in the implementation Plan for the Development of New Energy storage in the 14th Five-year Plan issued by the National Energy Administration, it is particularly emphasized that "reasonable distribution of the cost of new energy storage" is the primary means to increase the support of "new energy + energy storage".
Compared with the grid side and the user side, the demand for energy storage on the new energy side is more and more rigid under the background of the rapid growth of new energy installation. In addition, the expected reduction of new energy cost and improvement of efficiency also have enough strength to support the high cost of energy storage, while the grid side and the user side lack such cost management conditions.
In other words, in the scenario of "new energy + energy storage", energy storage has a clear and feasible cost channelling path, and the cost of energy storage is high. Fortunately, the "ally" new energy has room for further cost reduction. The two sides form the strongest "alliance", taking what they need from each other, and work together to pass the initial commercialization and large-scale promotion stage of energy storage.
At present, many provinces and cities are compulsory for supporting new energy storage, market mechanism is still not perfect, but the utilization rate is not reflected, don't put the energy storage to strive for new energy projects a vase or tolls, this is not conducive to the development of energy storage, more conducive to the development of new energy future, both sides is a long-term strategic ally, rather than short-term interests you.
So, we also need not worry overly direct cost problem of energy storage, has nothing to do with lithium ion or sodium ion, short-term and hard to improve, the current focus is through market mechanism of "new energy and energy storage", by "big move" type of cost channel to solve the problem of energy storage cost indirectly, so as to make energy storage quickly popularized.
